2026 US Housing Bubble Watch: The Most Overvalued Markets
Which US housing markets are most stretched versus local incomes and rents? Our 2026 valuation ranking.
Comparing each county's typical price with what local incomes and rents imply at the national price-to-income and price-to-rent multiples, 227 counties of 50,000+ people sit more than 25% above fair value. The most stretched is Santa Clara County, CA, about 147% overvalued on this measure. CA appears most often in the top 50, echoing the familiar West-Coast and mountain-resort pattern.
This is a relative signal — how a market compares with US norms today — not a forecast that prices will fall. Fundamentally cheap markets can stay cheap and stretched ones can stay stretched for years.
| # | County | Value | Overvalued | Price-to-income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Clara County, CA | $1,652,163 | +147% | 10.7× |
| 2 | San Mateo County, CA | $1,609,425 | +140% | 10.7× |
| 3 | Marin County, CA | $1,507,394 | +133% | 10.8× |
| 4 | Eagle County, CO | $1,305,416 | +131% | 11.8× |
| 5 | Orange County, CA | $1,197,200 | +124% | 10.9× |
| 6 | Alameda County, CA | $1,084,730 | +108% | 9.1× |
| 7 | Cape May County, NJ | $802,509 | +108% | 9.9× |
| 8 | San Francisco County, CA | $1,394,147 | +106% | 11.1× |
| 9 | Santa Cruz County, CA | $1,157,195 | +104% | 11.3× |
| 10 | Bonner County, ID | $657,225 | +100% | 9.7× |
| 11 | Apache County, AZ | $318,553 | +96% | 7.4× |
| 12 | Los Angeles County, CA | $888,357 | +96% | 10.3× |
| 13 | San Luis Obispo County, CA | $909,704 | +95% | 10.1× |
| 14 | Santa Barbara County, CA | $1,005,298 | +95% | 11.2× |
| 15 | Missoula County, MT | $580,423 | +93% | 8.0× |
| 16 | Williamson County, TN | $921,518 | +92% | 6.8× |
| 17 | Flathead County, MT | $649,719 | +91% | 8.8× |
| 18 | Monroe County, FL | $966,757 | +89% | 11.3× |
| 19 | San Diego County, CA | $946,356 | +89% | 9.1× |
| 20 | Maui County, HI | $997,364 | +89% | 11.9× |
| 21 | King County, WA | $866,580 | +86% | 7.2× |
| 22 | Madison County, ID | $418,856 | +85% | 7.2× |
| 23 | Napa County, CA | $890,643 | +85% | 8.9× |
| 24 | Kootenai County, ID | $605,487 | +85% | 8.0× |
| 25 | La Plata County, CO | $683,434 | +84% | 8.2× |
| 26 | Monterey County, CA | $850,449 | +83% | 9.8× |
| 27 | Coconino County, AZ | $628,947 | +79% | 8.8× |
| 28 | Snohomish County, WA | $760,219 | +78% | 7.2× |
| 29 | Kings County, NY | $948,173 | +78% | 12.4× |
| 30 | Walton County, FL | $656,360 | +77% | 8.0× |
Source: Zillow ZHVI, US Census (income, population) and Realtor.com, as of 2026-05. Figures are estimates — see methodology.